Keir Starmer's Backers Launch 'Stop Andy Burnham' Drive to Prevent Manchester Mayor's Commons Re-entry

Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly started a concerted initiative to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a return to the House of Commons. This action comes after the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has sparked an upcoming byelection.

Significant Barriers in the Candidate Selection Process

Several members on the party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have apparently predicted it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection process. This is largely due to the significant presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are keen to head off any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The party apparatus reportedly sprung into action following the revelation of the MP's intended resignation, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the considerable expense and political risk of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Last year, he prompted anger within No 10 and among senior ministers when he remarked that many MPs had urged him to run for the Labour leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is seeking a return to parliament to potentially contest the Labour leadership should a contest to Sir Keir arise. However, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against exaggerating the level of any planning, stating he is passionate about his current role and would only re-enter national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Political Landscape and Poll Ratings

Against a backdrop of polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only senior Labour personality with favourable public approval ratings.

Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, several obstacles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then win the byelection against challenges from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any possible bid for the leadership.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

High-ranking Labour sources have indicated that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already under way, with the party machinery being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself said that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to stop talking about potential contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have reportedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

A number of sources also expressed concerns about Reform UK attempting to win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.

Union Influence and Procedural Fears

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. There is also speculation the committee could enforce an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

Yet, a supporter warned against assuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.

The trade unions occupy a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently keeping their counsel, insiders indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as interference from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question has a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is likely to mount a strong challenge, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from independent candidates.

Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the parliamentary party.

The resigning MP confirmed he was stepping down due to deteriorating health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He is also subject to a parliamentary standards investigation related to his involvement in an offensive online group.