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For a brief period, Trump seemed to adopt a firm approach regarding the Ukrainian conflict. Following delivering warnings of "serious ramifications" in August if Russia's president persisted obstructing ceasefire negotiations, Trump eventually imposed major restrictions on Russia's two largest energy firms, Lukoil and Rosneft. This move seriously affected Putin's capability to fund his military invasion in Ukraine.

However, via his newly presented detailed peace proposal for the conflict, which was developed by US and Russian representatives without Ukrainian or EU involvement, Trump has apparently returned to his favorable to Russia approach.

Rewarding Military Action

The former president's plan would essentially benefit Putin for invading Ukraine while putting Ukraine's democracy in jeopardy. Although ringing proclamations that "Ukraine's independence will be affirmed", large portions of the proposal in reality weaken that same sovereignty. What represents a Kremlin dream would likely be a disaster for Ukraine.

Showing his business experience, Trump persists to view the Ukrainian conflict as a mere territorial dispute, implying giving Putin a portion of Ukraine's land will please the leader. But, Russia's war is not simply about dominating a charred region of economically weakened land in Ukraine's east. Rather, it is about the nation's democracy – and the Russian leader's clear intention to destroy it so it stops acts as an enticing example for the Russian people of the accountable leadership that his growing dictatorship withholds them.

Land Concessions

While maintaining in position the presently separated oblasts of these areas, Trump's proposal would compel the nation to abandon all of Donetsk region. Beyond favoring Russia with land that its forces have been failed to occupy in more than a lengthy period of conflict, this giveaway would render Ukrainian defenses severely weakened.

Donetsk is the site of Ukraine's highly-touted "stronghold system", the well-established defensive positions that are a essential impediment to invading forces. Trump would have Ukraine leave these fortifications, leaving Putin a clear route to the capital in case he eventually opt to restart the conflict.

Armed Forces Reductions

Then, in a move that would make renewed hostilities easier for Russia, Trump would force the nation to diminish the size of its troops from their current 800,000 to 850,000 soldiers to a cap of this lower number. Importantly, Trump's plan places no such restrictions on the invading army.

Apparently as a accommodation to Russia's campaign to portray Ukraine's legitimate leadership as radicals, Trump's plan states: "All radical belief system and activities must be condemned and banned." As if to emphasize this aspect, it demands that "Ukraine will hold political contests in three months" of a ceasefire agreement. Meanwhile, the proposal imposes no requirement that the Russian leader endanger his dictatorship by holding votes in his own country.

Defense Assurances

Admittedly, the initiative has Russia commit not to "attack bordering nations" and to "enshrine in law its position of non-violence towards European nations and Ukraine". However considering that Putin has broken similar agreements in the history – for example the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which Russia committed to recognize Ukraine's sovereignty in exchange for relinquishing its historical atomic arms, and the previous peace deals, in which Moscow promised to a halt in fighting and a return of occupied areas in the Donbas to Kyiv – for what reason should anyone have confidence in Putin on this occasion?

This explains Ukraine has been so adamant on external defense commitments. Although the initiative threatens a "strong joint armed reaction" should Russia renew its invasion, and provides that "Ukraine will receive reliable defense commitments", the specifics range from vague to concerning. The initiative would not only prevent Ukraine alliance membership but also prevent alliance nations from stationing troops on Ukraine's soil, effectively preventing the security presence, reportedly commanded by the UK and France, on which Ukraine had been counting to deter Putin from replenishing his diminished troops, re-equipping, and resuming aggression.

Global Response

A separate side agreement according to sources would grant Ukraine with a Nato-style defense commitment, in which any later "serious, intentional, and sustained aggression" by Russia on Ukraine "will be treated as an act of war jeopardizing the peace and security of the transatlantic community." This indicates a defense action. But different from a powerful Ukraine's armed forces – Ukraine's best defense against future Russian aggression – the success of the parallel accord would rely on the dedication of Nato leaders, including the US administration, to act with force to Russia's aggression, a response they have {not